In the last six months of 2007, a Centers for Disease Control survey found 18% of U.S. households don't have a landline -- up from 5% in the same period four years earlier. And, as discussed in this Real Time from last month, digging into the survey by age shows the decline of the landline in stark terms: 34.5% of adults aged 25-29 live in wireless-only households.
But as the landline slides toward extinction, a question: In a cellular-dominated world, how will we find a phone number for someone we don't know?
There's no white pages for cellphone numbers, and it doesn't seem likely that there'll be one soon. A few years ago, the cellphone industry's main trade group hired a company to assemble such a directory, but the effort collapsed after some carriers lobbied against it and surveys showed a majority of customers didn't want it. Subsequent efforts have fared little better: Earlier this year, a company called Intelius shuttered an online directory of 90 million mobile numbers amid anger from cellphone users and threats from Verizon. (Intelius -- not Intellius, as I had it earlier -- still offers a reverse-lookup service, for a fee.)
In backpedaling, Intelius said that "it's clear the market is still not ready." But it may never be.
JOIN THE DISCUSSION
Would you miss the white pages if they vanished tomorrow? In an ideal world, how would we find contact information for people we don't know? Join a discussion with me and other Online Journal readers.
The principal reason there's no cellphone directory is simple: We don't want one. The cellphone began as an extension of the landline, and the last thing we wanted (particularly as the ones paying for the calls) was telemarketers and other landline nuisances following us to it. Now, more and more users (particularly younger ones) see the cellphone not as an adjunct to the landline, but as a replacement.
But at least so far, the wireless-only trend hasn't prompted many people to reconsider and decide we really do need a cellphone directory after all. And I don't think that will change.
Why not? Because in a number of important ways, the cellphone is more of a break with traditional telephone service than it is an evolution of it. And those differences will only become more apparent in the coming years.
The biggest reason wireless-only adults don't need a directory is that they're reachable in other ways -- through their homepages, blogs, MySpace and Facebook outposts and of course through their email. Twenty years ago, the telephone was the only practical way of reaching someone -- and in that situation, a directory of telephone users was obviously crucial. Now, the phone is just one method in a range of communications options, and often it's not the best one. (As also discussed last month -- I've had phones on the brain.) It seems like having a phone in our pocket would make it a more important device, but the rise of other ways of communicating have made that phone far less important.
Less important in terms of phone functions, at least -- for as phones get smarter, they become less and less like the phones we grew up with. We're more likely to use them for text messaging or accessing our email, reserving voice calls for friends, family members and important colleagues -- another reason fewer and fewer people need our number. And new services allow us to sort and direct incoming calls as if they were emails -- witness the Google-owned GrandCentral, which gives you a single phone number from which calls are directed to a range of other numbers, whether it's your home phone, work phone, cellphone or some voice-mail box you'll regard like your spam folder on your email.
I don't know if GrandCentral itself will fly or die, but its approach seems likely to succeed: Pretty soon most of us will have a single point of contact, used by people we don't know to communicate with us in whatever way we collectively deem appropriate. And we'll control how and when they do so -- just as we increasingly control how and when we shop, read the news or watch TV. Once we've achieved this level of control, perhaps a directory of these single points of contact will emerge. But until then, more and more of us will do just fine without the old white pages.
That will arouse uneasy feelings that technology has once again done away with something we assumed was eternal -- the phone books that arrived once a year, the ones we sat on as kids at the dinner table, are shrinking as fewer and fewer people bother to be listed in them. Those of us who remember looking ourselves up in the white pages and thinking that now we belong to a place may lament -- not for the first time -- that our real-world communities are becoming more fragmented as people spend time in online communities of their own choosing instead.
But as with so many technological shifts, these vague feelings of loss won't stop us from changing. As the digital world matures, one of its great themes is the ability it gives us to channel information for consumption at a time and via a method of our choosing. The only surprise would be if phones weren't swept up in that too.
Friday, June 20, 2008
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Cable Plan Faces Bumpy Road
Cable-television operators, who have long sought a way to do away with the set-top box, say they have found a way to make that dream a reality.
Even so, a number of hurdles still have yet to be worked out.
In May, Sony Corp. and six of the biggest U.S. cable operators agreed to use Cable Television Laboratories Inc.'s technology standard, dubbed tru2way, saying the innovation would enable a new generation of TV sets to include video on demand, digital video recording, interactive-programming guides and other services -- all without the use of the ubiquitous cable box.
Sony signed the agreement with Comcast Corp., Time Warner Cable Inc., Cox Communications Inc., Charter Communications Inc., Cablevision Systems Corp. and Bright House Networks.
Because of technical limitations, satellite providers are unable to provide two-way interactive services such as video on demand.
The cable operators, with the exception of Charter Communications, have pledged to adopt tru2way by midsummer 2009.
Several observers say various factors stand in the way, including getting cooperation from electronics retailers and coming up with a business model to make the idea take hold.
About three years ago, cable operators had something called the CableCard, a plug-in about the size of a credit card that would have allowed consumers to plug their cable lines into their TV sets without the use of a set-top box.
But CableCard never really got off the ground because retailers and manufacturers couldn't agree on what the two-way standard would be. Some TV sets were compatible with the card, and some weren't.
"The CableCard was really chaotic, especially at retail," said Tuna Amobi, entertainment analyst at Standard & Poor's. "Retailers found that it really created a lot of confusion in the minds of the consumers."
Other analysts point to difficulty in getting broad market support. Says James McQuivey of Forrester Research: "Even if the new Sony [TV] becomes available -- and that could be years from now -- and you take that device home, will it only work with that one cable system? Or if you were to switch to some competitive provider, would it still work?"
The Consumer Electronics Association, the industry's trade group in the U.S., says it is pleased with the landmark agreement on tru2way. But it also signaled that having Sony, Matsushita Electric Industrial Co.'s Panasonic brand and several cable operators on board with tru2way is only one step on a long road that could get bumpy.
"It is difficult to say...whether alternative technical proposals for cable-equipment compatibility will be chosen by some cable operators or equipment manufacturers in the future," the CEA said.
To be universally adopted, the standard needs approval from the Federal Communications Commission.
Another hurdle, Mr. McQuivey says, is that "nobody has discussed what the business model for this is going to be."
Ostensibly, the things possible without the set-top should be the same as options available with the box. The most prominent of those is probably video on demand. Video on demand allows viewers to watch shows stored on central servers that are streamed to users who make on-screen requests to see specific programs. Typically, as with a digital video recorder, on-demand video allows consumers to pause, rewind and fast-forward a program as it is played back.
Despite great promise, the offering has yet to become a significant revenue generator for cable operators.
Networks and studios offer various ad-supported television shows on-demand for free, hoping to galvanize loyal viewers and pick up new ones by encouraging sampling. Its true value is hard to quantify, however, especially when fast-forwarding of ads is allowed.
Addressable advertising is another possibility tru2way holds for cable operators. Such ads would target specific consumers based on what they watch, and gather demographic information. Ideally, viewers could opt out of seeing certain kinds of ads. Major cable operators, in an initiative known as Canoe Ventures, are working on the specifics.
Whatever cable operators and TV manufacturers decide, they had better be quick about it, says Robert Rosenberg, president of Insight Research.
"There has to be a simple way to download video straight from the Internet to the TV, the device has to be very simple and affordable, it's got to have strong search capabilities, and it's got to be rolled out aggressively," Mr. Rosenberg said.
As online video becomes increasingly part of the daily lifestyle, consumers are going to expect to be able to download high-definition video straight from the Web to their TV sets. Once a great deal of content is available this way, viewers need an easy way to sort through it all, using their remote control to navigate an on-screen guide.
For cable operators, the risk is that this process could leave them out of the equation altogether.
"Cable doesn't have a huge amount of time to establish dominance in this area," Mr. Rosenberg said. A personal-computer maker, another electronics manufacturer or a phone company "could end up bringing something like this to market faster," he said.
And cable companies are sometimes regarded as slow to adapt. "They say, 'We'll do this, we'll do that,' and it ends up taking five years, and it's not what everyone expected it to be," Forrester Research's Mr. McQuivey said. "So here's where I stand on tru2way: I'll believe it when I see it."
Even so, a number of hurdles still have yet to be worked out.
In May, Sony Corp. and six of the biggest U.S. cable operators agreed to use Cable Television Laboratories Inc.'s technology standard, dubbed tru2way, saying the innovation would enable a new generation of TV sets to include video on demand, digital video recording, interactive-programming guides and other services -- all without the use of the ubiquitous cable box.
Sony signed the agreement with Comcast Corp., Time Warner Cable Inc., Cox Communications Inc., Charter Communications Inc., Cablevision Systems Corp. and Bright House Networks.
Because of technical limitations, satellite providers are unable to provide two-way interactive services such as video on demand.
The cable operators, with the exception of Charter Communications, have pledged to adopt tru2way by midsummer 2009.
Several observers say various factors stand in the way, including getting cooperation from electronics retailers and coming up with a business model to make the idea take hold.
About three years ago, cable operators had something called the CableCard, a plug-in about the size of a credit card that would have allowed consumers to plug their cable lines into their TV sets without the use of a set-top box.
But CableCard never really got off the ground because retailers and manufacturers couldn't agree on what the two-way standard would be. Some TV sets were compatible with the card, and some weren't.
"The CableCard was really chaotic, especially at retail," said Tuna Amobi, entertainment analyst at Standard & Poor's. "Retailers found that it really created a lot of confusion in the minds of the consumers."
Other analysts point to difficulty in getting broad market support. Says James McQuivey of Forrester Research: "Even if the new Sony [TV] becomes available -- and that could be years from now -- and you take that device home, will it only work with that one cable system? Or if you were to switch to some competitive provider, would it still work?"
The Consumer Electronics Association, the industry's trade group in the U.S., says it is pleased with the landmark agreement on tru2way. But it also signaled that having Sony, Matsushita Electric Industrial Co.'s Panasonic brand and several cable operators on board with tru2way is only one step on a long road that could get bumpy.
"It is difficult to say...whether alternative technical proposals for cable-equipment compatibility will be chosen by some cable operators or equipment manufacturers in the future," the CEA said.
To be universally adopted, the standard needs approval from the Federal Communications Commission.
Another hurdle, Mr. McQuivey says, is that "nobody has discussed what the business model for this is going to be."
Ostensibly, the things possible without the set-top should be the same as options available with the box. The most prominent of those is probably video on demand. Video on demand allows viewers to watch shows stored on central servers that are streamed to users who make on-screen requests to see specific programs. Typically, as with a digital video recorder, on-demand video allows consumers to pause, rewind and fast-forward a program as it is played back.
Despite great promise, the offering has yet to become a significant revenue generator for cable operators.
Networks and studios offer various ad-supported television shows on-demand for free, hoping to galvanize loyal viewers and pick up new ones by encouraging sampling. Its true value is hard to quantify, however, especially when fast-forwarding of ads is allowed.
Addressable advertising is another possibility tru2way holds for cable operators. Such ads would target specific consumers based on what they watch, and gather demographic information. Ideally, viewers could opt out of seeing certain kinds of ads. Major cable operators, in an initiative known as Canoe Ventures, are working on the specifics.
Whatever cable operators and TV manufacturers decide, they had better be quick about it, says Robert Rosenberg, president of Insight Research.
"There has to be a simple way to download video straight from the Internet to the TV, the device has to be very simple and affordable, it's got to have strong search capabilities, and it's got to be rolled out aggressively," Mr. Rosenberg said.
As online video becomes increasingly part of the daily lifestyle, consumers are going to expect to be able to download high-definition video straight from the Web to their TV sets. Once a great deal of content is available this way, viewers need an easy way to sort through it all, using their remote control to navigate an on-screen guide.
For cable operators, the risk is that this process could leave them out of the equation altogether.
"Cable doesn't have a huge amount of time to establish dominance in this area," Mr. Rosenberg said. A personal-computer maker, another electronics manufacturer or a phone company "could end up bringing something like this to market faster," he said.
And cable companies are sometimes regarded as slow to adapt. "They say, 'We'll do this, we'll do that,' and it ends up taking five years, and it's not what everyone expected it to be," Forrester Research's Mr. McQuivey said. "So here's where I stand on tru2way: I'll believe it when I see it."
Thursday, April 24, 2008
ION TTUSB10 USB Turntable
USB turntables are a bit of an odd duck: at their core they're a device that still exists to serve of the pleasure of audiophiles and DJs - two small and elite groups - but they have digital audio converters and USB connections to facilitate conversion of sweet, sexy analog sound into easily portable digital files on your computer. Taking all of that into consideration, it's really a wonder LP lovers don't consider USB turntables the Antichrist.
Actually, that's a little unfair: plenty of people have record collections moldering in boxes in their basements that they've love to listen to again, perhaps on their mp3 players or their media PCs. They're probably looking for a fairly easy solution that sounds good. For these people, Ion Audio has the TTUSB line, including the TTUSB10, a turntable with USB and RCA outputs that hopes to not only play your records, but help you digitize them with style and ease. Today's task: find out exactly how well those claims stand up to the cold, harsh light of reality. Let's go.
Review Verdict
* USB turntables are a good idea, but because the Ion Audio TTUSB10 has a few setup, sound and usability issues, I can't give this particular USB turntable my full recommendation.
The Good & Bad
* Well-written audio recording & editing guide
* 1/8 inch jack input for recording tapes as well as records
* Free updates for the included software
* Includes RCA plugs for use as a standard record player
* 45 rpm speed allows faster recording without loss of quality
* Setup process is overly complicated
* Included software is a mixed bag of quality
* Recorded audio sounds harsh
* Export as MP3 requires plug-in
* Included click and pop filter does not work
Essential Specs & Stats
* Record compatibility: 33, 45 & 78 rpm playback
* Other input(s): 1/8" stereo line input
* Power source: Self-powered
* Warranty: One year
* Released date: July 2007
Package Content
* TTUSB10 USB Turntable
* Platter
* 45 rpm record adapter
* Dust cover
* Tone arm weight
* USB cable
* Software disc
Actually, that's a little unfair: plenty of people have record collections moldering in boxes in their basements that they've love to listen to again, perhaps on their mp3 players or their media PCs. They're probably looking for a fairly easy solution that sounds good. For these people, Ion Audio has the TTUSB line, including the TTUSB10, a turntable with USB and RCA outputs that hopes to not only play your records, but help you digitize them with style and ease. Today's task: find out exactly how well those claims stand up to the cold, harsh light of reality. Let's go.
Review Verdict
* USB turntables are a good idea, but because the Ion Audio TTUSB10 has a few setup, sound and usability issues, I can't give this particular USB turntable my full recommendation.
The Good & Bad
* Well-written audio recording & editing guide
* 1/8 inch jack input for recording tapes as well as records
* Free updates for the included software
* Includes RCA plugs for use as a standard record player
* 45 rpm speed allows faster recording without loss of quality
* Setup process is overly complicated
* Included software is a mixed bag of quality
* Recorded audio sounds harsh
* Export as MP3 requires plug-in
* Included click and pop filter does not work
Essential Specs & Stats
* Record compatibility: 33, 45 & 78 rpm playback
* Other input(s): 1/8" stereo line input
* Power source: Self-powered
* Warranty: One year
* Released date: July 2007
Package Content
* TTUSB10 USB Turntable
* Platter
* 45 rpm record adapter
* Dust cover
* Tone arm weight
* USB cable
* Software disc
TAPE 2 PC
http://www.ion-audio.com/tape2pc
CREATE MP3S FROM YOUR TAPE COLLECTION! $149.99
Just plug the TAPE 2 PC into your computer using the provided USB cable, install the software and start converting your music. Easily transfer to your iPod or other MP3 player.
TAPE 2 PC includes EZ Tape Converter 2 for PC (EZTC2) and EZ Audio Converter for Mac (EZAC); the simplest way to record and convert tapes directly to iTunes. EZTC2 features Gracenote® MusicID technology, which analyzes your recordings and automatically retrieves album, artist and song information for you! EZAC lets you easily enter track information. You can now digitally archive your collection in just a few mouse clicks.
When you're finished archiving your cassettes to your computer, TAPE 2 PC can connect to your stereo system using standard RCA cables for convenient cassette listening in your living room, garage, or wherever your stereo system resides.
Upgrading your favorite recordings has never been easier.
Key Features
* Quickly transfer music on your tapes to MP3 format on your computer!
* Dual dubbing cassette deck
* Plug & Play USB audio interface no drivers needed!
* Metal and CrO2 tape selector
* EZ Tape Converter 2 software (PC) and EZ Audio Converter (Mac) for hassle-free recording
* Audacity software (Mac and PC) included for cleaning up worn recordings
Includes
* USB Cable
* Stereo RCA Cable
* Software CD
* Quick Start User's Manual
Computer Requirements
* PC
o Windows XP or Vista
o One available USB1.1 port or higher
* Mac
o Mac OS9 or higher
o One available USB1.1 port or higher
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